Hindsight
Quarterback
Sleepers
A recycled talent, a career backup and an aging veteran...those are my sleepers.
All will be chosen as fantasy backups at best and should be available in the
back half of your draft.
Brian
Griese (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
Griese is going into his 8th year in the
league, and unlike most positions quarterbacks get better when they reach their
late 20's / early 30's. After a number of so-so fantasy years in Denver
and a brief stint in Miami, Brian was re-signed by Tampa Bay in the off-season
and is clearly the number one on the depth chart. In 2004 he played in 11
games (starting in 10), and finished with 2,632 yards and 20 touchdowns.
If you equate that out to a full season, that's about 4,000 yards and 30 scores
which would place him among the fantasy elite.
On the negative side
his inconsistency worries
me a little as he had 5 games where he threw for less than 200 yards. This
will be his second year in the offense though, which should help him iron out
his game. I also like the weapons around him and his strength of schedule
(9th easiest), which features only three games against teams with top 10 passing
defenses (Miami, Buffalo and Washington) and four cushy match-ups against
Minnesota, Green Bay and New Orleans (twice).
Billy
Volek (Tennessee Titans)
Who? No I didn't mistype
Michael Vick, this guy is the backup in Tennessee and for the record I have
never before recommended drafting a number two QB.
In 2004 Volek finally got his
chance to shine, and many savvy fantasy owners rode him to a championship down
the stretch (Remember that 492 yard, 4 touchdown game against the Raiders in
week 15?). In 10 games (8 starts) Volek racked up 2,486 yards and 19
touchdowns (18 in the air). Do the math on that one and it translates
loosely into 5,000 yards and 38 touchdowns over a 16 game schedule.
Those kinds of numbers put him well past first round selections like Manning and
Culpepper.
Of course Volek won't play 16
games this year. Steve McNair is still the starter and he has made a
career out of playing hurt. It caught up with him in 2004 though, and like
the saying goes, he isn't getting any younger. The other knock on Volek is
the loss of Derrick Mason, the previous number one receiver in Tennessee.
Although his favorite target Drew Bennett returns, Bennett will now be the number one
guy and how well the two of them will perform without Mason taking the heat is
anyone's guess.
The point is that this guy is a
fantasy gold mine, and he will be available in the final rounds of your draft.
Rather than taking a 7th receiver or a second kicker, take a flyer on Billy,
bury him on your roster and wait until McNair's inevitable injury.
Kurt
Warner (Arizona Cardinals)
Ahhh...how the mighty have fallen.
The once dominant fantasy quarterback is not even considered by many a viable
fantasy backup for 2005. Fools.
Yes Warner has had some very poor
fantasy seasons, he has had less touchdowns (10) than interceptions (16) over
the previous 3 years. However, I think that this was due to a mixture of
injuries and of course playing in Tom Coughlin's Giants offense (shudder).
His move to sunny Arizona should
be the cure for what has ailed him however. Denny Green has successfully
recycled aging quarterbacks time and time again (Randall Cunningham. Jeff
George, Brad Johnson, etc.) and you would be a fool not to trust his judgment on
this one as well. Add to that the young talent around him (Fitzgerald, Boldin.
Arrington/Shipp) and he is in a good position to rack up solid fantasy numbers.
Don't expect a return to his two
MVP years in terms of final stats, but Warner will be an inexpensive steal as
your fantasy backup.
Running Back Sleepers
These guys aren't names you have
never heard of, but they are going well after the first 20 backs have been taken
in drafts that I have seen. As all three could finish in the top 20 these
are low-risk / high-reward players.
Mewelde Moore
(Minnesota Vikings)
First off, let's get past the
rumors that I only picked him as a sleeper because I like saying "Mewelde".
If this was all about my well documented fondness for players with weird names I
would have picked the Vikings' rookie Ciatrick Fason (How sweet is that?).
Now the first thing that has to be
said is that Moore only has real value if Michael Bennett gets hurt.
Bennett is the man in Minnesota, and they really want him to (finally) stay
healthy and get 15-20 touches per game. However, his injury history is
against him; he only played in 8 games in 2003 and 11 in 2004.
In Mewelde's rookie campaign he
had limited playing time yet he got on the field enough to show his talent.
He averaged 5.8 yards per carry in 65 attempts, and he caught 27 balls for 238
additional yards. This illustrates the kind of upside he could bring if
Bennett goes down.
The knock on him, besides being
second string, is that Vikings coach Mike Tice shuffles running backs so often
it is hard to imagine him taking a "stick with one guy" approach. Veteran
Moe Williams and rookie Ciatrick Fason will be in the mix and that makes me a
little nervous.
In the final analysis you should
pick up Mewelde if A.) You own Michael Bennett, or B.) If the Michael Bennett
owner waits too long and you can get him in the mid-rounds of your draft. (Can
you say "Trade Bait"?)
DeShaun Foster (Carolina
Panthers)
This guy is not an unknown
quantity, yet he is tragically undervalued by the fantasy world. The knock
on him is his injury history. After a stellar career at UCLA, he entered
the league as the number two guy in Carolina behind Stephen Davis. He
showed real flashes of both speed and power, particularly in the 2003 playoffs
as the Panthers made their Super Bowl run.
In 2004 he was highly touted
entering the season but he suffered a broken collar bone, his second
season-ending injury. (Knee surgery in 2002) With a total of only five
starts in three years, he hardly has a proven track record, but I think that the
stars will align for him in 2005.
Stephen Davis is coming off of
microfracture knee surgery, and his work in camp has been sparing at best.
The other competition comes from the rookie Eric Shelton, a big back (6-1, 246
lbs.) with speed and Nick Goings, who performed well in 2004 (1,217 yards and 7
touchdowns combined) but appears to be hated by the Carolina coaching staff.
So how do I pick a guy who has
problems staying healthy and plenty of competition in town as a sleeper?
Let's just say that I have a feeling on this one. Considering that he was
the 24th running back taken in our mock draft, he's well worth the pick.
Ricky Williams (Miami
Dolphins)
The biggest joke in fantasy
football is the spin being put on Ricky Williams. Just watch all of the
talking heads going on about his lack of commitment, his lack of goals for the
season, his year off, his low playing weight and the impacts to his playing time
based upon his 4 game suspension.
What none of them are talking
about are the real questions.
1. Are the Dolphins really
finished with Ricky or do they still see him as the franchise back?
2. How much faith can they
put in an untested rookie back who didn't even handle the whole load in college?
3. If Miami is looking to
trade him, can they afford not to let him showcase his talents on the field?
Obviously the worst case scenario
is that while Ricky serves out his suspension, Ronnie Brown wows the coaches and
his team with three or four great performances, most of which result in wins.
When Ricky comes back he is an afterthought and he only sees the field to spell
Brown.
However, Miami plays three of its
first four games against teams with top 10 rushing defenses (Jets, Panthers and
Bills), they have a new offensive coordinator and an unsettled quarterback
situation. That will likely to lead to a slow start offensively which will
play to Williams' advantage. With a 2-2 or 1-3 start, the team and their
fans will be looking for a change.
The point is that Ricky still has
the tools to be an elite back, what he needs is the opportunity. He should
get that opportunity in 2005, and although he won't reach his 2002 numbers
(2,216 yards combined and 17 touchdowns) even half that production is a good
fantasy season. Considering the dirt-cheap price for Williams this year
(he was drafted in the 10th round in our mock draft!) he is probably the
best bargain I have ever seen.
Wide Receiver
Sleepers
I would like to title this section
"Have You Forgotten?" It seems that most of the fantasy world has, all of
these guys are waaaay undervalued considering the upside they could bring.
Anquan Boldin (Arizona
Cardinals)
In 2003 Anquan Boldin was the
offensive rookie of the year and he finished third in fantasy scoring among all
wide receivers with 1,377 yards and 8 touchdowns. Last year he missed the
first six games after undergoing arthroscopic knee surgery, and he didn't hit
his stride until the end of the season.
In 2005 he is healthy, he has a
real quarterback in Kurt Warner, a legitimate threat (Larry Fitzgerald) on the
other side to take the pressure off of him and Denny Green's proven offensive
system in place.
For a guy who finished third as a
rookie, I see big things for him as he enters his third year which is known as
the breakout year for young receivers.
Chris Chambers (Miami
Dolphins)
This one falls into my "Gut Check"
category as well. Chambers is a really talented player who has been cursed
with a series of poor quarterbacks. This season will mark his 4th year as
a full-time starter, and this should be the year he finally gets 1,000 yards
receiving. (His best output previously was in 2003 where he put up 963
yards and 11 touchdowns.) There are several factors why he makes my
sleeper list, so here goes...
I like Scott Linehan. He is
the new offensive coordinator in Miami after an extremely successful stint in
Minnesota. He likes to pass the ball a lot if you hadn't noticed.
I like Gus Frerotte. (Yeah, I said
it.) He should win the job over A.J. Feeley, and I think that he has the
ability to deliver the big play. A bonus, Frerotte has already worked with
Linehan in Minnesota and knows the offensive scheme.
I like the Miami running game.
With both Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams keeping defenses honest, opportunities
should abound for the passing game.
Chambers probably won't even be
among the top 20 receivers selected on draft day, so he'll be a great number 2
or 3 pickup for your team.
Marcus Robinson (Minnesota
Vikings)
This guy falls into my "You're
Reaching" category, but he is the epitome of a sleeper. In our mock draft
I picked him up with the 200th pick. Yes, that's right, he went dead last
in the draft. By no means however does that make him a "Mr. Irrelevant".
Last season Robinsoin was
primarily the number three receiver in Minnesota, although he did have seven
starts in the earlier part of the season. He finished with 657 yards and 8
touchdowns which was pretty good for a fantasy reserve.
This year Marcus has locked down
the number two receiver slot for the Vikings, and with Randy Moss out of town
there will be a lot of catches to spread around. If he doesn't lose his
position to free agent pickup Travis Taylor or to rookie Troy Williamson, he
could easily have 1,000 yards and double-digit touchdowns.
StingRay
Quarterback - Joey Harrington (Detroit Lions)
Does anyone else think that Joey Harrington is getting judged too harshly for his
performance the last couple of seasons? The Lions acquired 35 year old Jeff Garcia
and everyone is ready to anoint him the starter in Detroit. Is it Harrington’s
fault that Charles Rogers has been injured the past two years? Roy Williams
was a fabulous rookie but he was still a rookie and he too was injured for part
of the year and Harrington still had his best season as a pro, throwing for 19
touchdowns and 12 interceptions. (The first time in his career he threw more
touchdowns then interceptions.) His completion percentage and passer rating improved
as well.
If Harrington continues to progress what kind of year will he have if
Charles Rogers is healthy? Roy Williams is a stud and the Lions drafted Mike
Williams who might have been the number one overall pick if he didn’t have to
sit out a season when he tried to jump to the NFL. The Lions also acquired
former Colts tight end Marcus Pollard and they have a very good back in Kevin
Jones. Harrington should be able to throw 25 to 26 touchdowns in this offense. I
think he’s this year’s Drew Brees.
Running Back - Steven Jackson (St. Louis Rams)
Steven Jackson has taken over for Marshall Faulk as the number one back in St.
Louis and he’s in for a big year. Have you seen the St. Louis Rams schedule?
Besides facing the 49ers, Cardinals, and Seahawks twice the Rams have games
against the Colts, Giants, Texans, Saints, Titans and Vikings. With those matchups I could probably score 7 or 8 touchdowns. (smile)
As a rookie Steven Jackson averaged 5.0 yards per carry and added some toughness
to the Rams running game. Now, that he is the starter look for Jackson to put up
numbers worthy of a number one running back. He is not regarded that high in
most of the drafts that I have seen so he is a good bargain back on draft day
who has tremendous upside. Don’t you sleep on Steven Jackson.
Wide Receivers - Donald Driver (Green Bay Packers)
In 2002 Donald Driver had a breakout season when he caught 70 passes for 1,064
yards and 9 touchdowns. Expectations were high for Driver in 2003 but after he
suffered a neck injury early in the year he was not the same player that we saw in
2002.
Last season when Javon Walker
was dominating the fantasy world Driver quietly had an impressive season. He
caught 84 passes for 1,208 yards and 9 touchdowns. When people talk about top
fantasy receivers Donald Driver’s name seems to be left out of the discussion.
Driver is a great number two receiver who can post numbers that are as good as a
number one receiver. Driver can be picked up in the 6th or 7th round of most
fantasy drafts.
The Sandman
I like to break down the keepers
into three categories;
(1) Sleeper, someone who would
normally be drafted but would serve on most fantasy teams as a backup, but this year
he is worth starting every week. An example from last year would be Carson
Palmer.
(2) Deep Sleeper, someone who is
generally known but this is the year that they step up or bounce back. Rookies
also fall into this category but only someone who was drafted outside the first
round. An example of this last year would be Javon Walker or Drew Brees.
(3) Rip Van Winkle, an unknown
player or a backup that by the end of the season everyone will wish that they
had them on their team. An example from last year would be Antonio Gates.
Quarterback Sleepers
Sleeper – Jake Delhomme (Carolina Panthers)
It is amazing to me that Delhomme continues to fly under the radar in most
leagues but he always does. In each of the last two seasons he has passed for 20 TD’s and 3,000+ yards. I know that he lost Muhsin Muhammad but Steve Smith
(1,100 yards and 7 touchdowns in 2003) is coming back so Delhomme really isn’t
losing anything. Last year he had a career year, without a running game. Stephen
Davis and DeShaun Foster will both be ready week 1 this year so defenses will
bite on the play-action-pass.
Deep Sleeper – Eli Manning (New York Giants)
The former No.1 overall pick showed tremendous improvement over the last three
weeks of 2004. He had 5 touchdown passes and two games in which his passer rating
was over 100. Keep in mind that his two receivers didn’t catch a touchdown pass
all year. The Giants went out and signed Plaixco Burress so that won’t happen
this year. Also, Amani Toomer battled a hamstring injury all season and he has
stated that he is 100% healthy. Tiki Barber can catch the ball out of the
backfield and Jeremey Shockey is nice target in the red-zone.
Rip Van Winkle – Jeff Garcia (Detroit Lions)
The best thing to happen to Garcia was being cut by the Browns. He took the
backup job in Detroit and was reunited with his former coach in San Francisco,
Steve Mariucci. Mariucci knows what Garcia can do in the west coast offense so
when Joey Harrington starts slowly, Garcia will take over. I anticipate this
happening on or before week 4. Garcia has a solid running game with Kevin Jones, and
three former first round wide receiver selections in Charles Rogers, Roy Williams and Mike
Williams. This is same formula that worked for Mariucci and Garcia in San
Francisco.
Running Back Sleepers
Sleeper – Julius Jones (Dallas Cowboys)
It is amazing what Bill Parcells can do for a running back's career. First he
drafted and developed Curtis Martin into an all-pro running back and now he has
a new project. Jones, who missed 7 games with a shoulder injury, had 100+
total yards in 4 of the last 7 games. He also had 7 touchdowns over that time
span. I love running backs that finish the previous season strong and Jones
should get the ball 30 times a game in 2005. One more nugget, he was third in the NFL
last year in rushing yards per game.
Deep Sleeper – J.J. Arrington (Arizona Cardinals)
For the first time in years the Cardinals go into training camp knowing who
their week 1 starter will be. Arrington is a smallish back who can hit the hole
quick (4.46 seconds in the 40-yard dash.) The bonus that you get with Arrington is
that he can catch the ball out of the backfield. Arizona averaged over 100 yards
rushing per game last year and they were 8th in the league in rushing touchdowns. Their
problem has been that their starter never makes it through a full season.
Rip Van Winkle – Frank Gore (San Francisco 49ers)
Gore, a third round draft pick from the University of Miami, goes into the
season as the backup to Kevan Barlow, but some people in the organization think
that he is a better back. Gore had a major knee surgery last year and that is
why he wasn’t drafted until the third round. The 49ers are going to start a
questionable quarterback so they will run the ball often. Another reason why I like
Gore is that Barlow lost his starting job to Maurice Hicks last year so any slip
up and the 49ers will give Gore a shot.
